Research: Business leaders seek growth amid uncertainty
The second annual Risk & Reward survey finds that companies are seeking moderate growth, guided by their own decision making.
This article is part of our Risk + Reward series. Capital One Business and Inc. partnered to survey 349 business leaders in November 2025 to explore the factors that affect how they weigh business risks and rewards in navigating modern business landscapes.
When the economy feels uncertain and technology is advancing rapidly, every decision can seem risky. Even so, growing businesses remain bullish on growth. Rather than retreating because of external factors they can’t control, business leaders are forging ahead with infrastructure investment, strategic partnerships and capabilities expansion.
Capital One Business and Inc. conducted a new survey of 349 U.S. business leaders to understand how growing businesses are balancing risk and reward in pursuit of profit and progress. As business leaders grapple with the contradiction of corporate growth amid global uncertainty, they are simultaneously steadfast and anxious.
Historical small-business data suggests strong growth for the future
Seventy-seven percent of business leaders surveyed look back on a positive year of growth and anticipate both revenue (94%) and earnings (96%) growth in the year ahead, despite rising external uncertainties. Many leaders expressed positive sentiment about the business climate in their industry (67%) and at their company (64%), which they expect to continue.
Although some past uncertainties have been resolved, such as the U.S. election, new fears have emerged. Topping the list of concerns were:
- Inflation costs (40%)
- Geopolitical instability (39%)
In addition, leaders had concerns about several U.S.-specific issues, including unemployment, the economic policies of the current administration and the regulatory environment (all 38%).
In short, they are optimistic about factors they can control and less so about economic uncertainty, over which they have little control.
Leaders are confident in their companies
The strategy being adopted by growing businesses relies on what they can control. Business leaders’ level of confidence about their company (55%) and industry (66%) is higher than their level of confidence regarding the U.S. (51%) and global (50%) business environments.
So, they say they will concentrate their time and company resources on internal drivers, including new product development (45%), internal capabilities and vision (21%), acquisitions and joint ventures (19%) and the company’s current financial position (17%). This internal focus translates to optimism, with 73% of business leaders expecting that achieving their growth objectives this year will be as challenging or less so than last year. Just 31% of business leaders indicated that factors beyond their control were impacting their company’s growth.
Technology, infrastructure and talent are this year’s investment focus
Business leaders are putting their money where their mouth is when it comes to demonstrating corporate optimism, with a majority (67%) investing in assets expected to yield payoffs in increased revenue or lower costs through improved efficiency. In fact, technology-driven transformation was cited as the most important strategy for achieving growth projections (42%). Some of the other popular infrastructure bets are:
- Cybersecurity and IT (52%)
- Adding employees (47%)
- New facilities (44%)
- Equipment upgrades (39%)
- Artificial intelligence (AI) (30%)
In addition to fortifying internal operations, growing businesses are also making connections to explore new ventures. Business leaders are leveraging external relationships through strategic alliances with third parties (41%), joint ventures (24%) and mergers and acquisitions (18%).
However, there is a spectrum with respect to how aggressively leaders are pursuing growth, ranging from moderate (37%) to aggressive (24%) to disruptive/transformational (2%). The remainder of businesses are planning to tread water and focus on self-preservation more than anything else.
What business leaders find most difficult about making growth-related decisions has to do with the speed of change: “Reality is changing so fast that every decision seems unprecedented” (27%).
Where do you grow from here?
Be intentional about your pace. Rather than aspiring to achieve as much growth as possible, whatever it takes, set some parameters around what you’re willing to do to grow. Depending on how aggressive you want to be, you’ll need to set aside cash, increase your organization’s production capacity and increase head count.
Focus on what you can control. You’re unlikely to impact external forces. To achieve any kind of business growth, invest your resources in factors within your control, such as developing new products and exploring strategic partnerships as a path to growth, which spreads the risk over both organizations.
Create a decision-making framework. With about a quarter of business leaders stating that reality is changing so fast that every decision seems unprecedented, define a process to help make solid decisions in the face of the unknown. Establish procedures for deciding when to pilot and when to scale. Determine the limits to your risk tolerance, and design a framework that can ensure you’re able to move quickly when opportunities arise.
Read more about the factors that affect how business leaders make decisions.
