Businesses plan growth amid uncertainty, survey shows

Today’s business climate holds no shortage of uncertainty. Economic indicators broadcast mixed signals, while a complicated geopolitical landscape continues to shift. Technology’s advancements, including generative artificial intelligence (gen AI), are reshaping jobs and promising transformation, placing enormous pressure on business leaders to realize returns on their technology investments. Yet in the face of these challenges and ambiguities, business leaders remain cautiously optimistic about the year ahead, and most are planning for growth, according to the second annual Risk & Reward survey by Capital One and Inc.

The survey polled 349 business leaders from across multiple industries, company sizes and regions in the U.S., asking questions about a range of subjects, including their confidence and outlook, the impact of fast-changing technology and what it takes to lead in uncertain times. Respondents shared their plans for growth, the importance of trusting their instincts and how they are steering their companies through an environment where clear signals are rare and decisive leadership matters more than ever. 

The factors influencing business leaders’ confidence levels about the economy and business climate have shifted during the past year. In the inaugural Risk & Reward survey in 2024, the top factor was the outcome of the presidential election, followed by inflation costs. The job market and available talent ranked fifth among concerns affecting their outlook. This year’s survey respondents reported that inflation is the top issue affecting their confidence in the economy and business climate, followed by geopolitical instability and unemployment.

“I’m cautiously optimistic about the economy. While there is ongoing uncertainty with inflation, interest rates and overall market stability, I’ve focused on adapting through strategic planning and diversification,” says one survey respondent.

Respondents also revealed a discrepancy between their expected revenue growth versus their expected earnings growth. More than three out of four (77 percent) companies expect revenue growth of up to 10 percent, while 59 percent of companies expect their earnings to grow by at least 10 percent. The increase in earnings can come from cost cutting, such as the 43 percent that expect to decrease the number of employees they have, or from efficiency measures, such as automating tasks by using AI solutions.

Even as they try to decipher mixed economic signals—solid gross domestic product (GDP) growth on one hand and a cooling job market on the other, for example—business leaders have had a year to adapt and seem primed for growth.

What drives growth during times of uncertainty? Adopting the right strategy that matches expectations to current circumstances is one aspect. Nearly two out of three respondents are planning for moderate (37 percent) or offensive (26 percent) growth. Thirty-seven percent are bracing to be in defensive growth mode, with 28 percent expecting to dig into their resilience and work on keeping up with the competition.

In addition to planning the right growth strategy, the survey also found that companies are supporting growth by mitigating financial and other risks. The top area of capital investment is cybersecurity. Companies are also opting for self-funding to mitigate financial risk.

“We have a strong line of credit available to us if we need it, but so far, we are self-funded. I hope to keep this going in the next 12 months,” says one survey respondent.

Business leaders are facing enormous pressure to deploy technology—especially AI—and realize its return on investment. In fact, 77 percent of business leaders say their companies will transform in terms of technology, infrastructure and solutions.

But that transformation isn’t easy. Business leaders are aware of the pitfalls associated with introducing new technologies. For the second year in a row, digital transformation tops the list of tough decisions (50 percent in 2024 and 42 percent in 2025). To succeed, companies will need to figure out how to address the top challenges: figuring out how and where to use AI solutions and how to avoid cybersecurity issues.

Nowhere is the pressure to succeed more intense than in AI. Most companies consider themselves “out of the gate”—having implemented AI for some, most or all functions—when it comes to deployment. While most large- and small-company respondents describe themselves as out of the gate, ​​smaller companies are more likely to be “close to the gate​,” or nearly ready to deploy their AI initiatives (21 percent versus 12 percent for large companies), whereas large companies are more likely to be ​“closing in on the finish line” (18 percent versus 9 percent)​ when it comes to implementing AI.

Large companies are ahead of smaller ones in terms of AI deployment. Both large and small companies have the biggest number of companies describing themselves as “out of the gate,” but it’s at the very start and end of the journey where the differences come in. Smaller companies are more likely to be at the starting gate (21 percent versus 12 percent for large companies), whereas large companies are more likely to be closing in on the finish line (18 percent versus 9 percent).

Business leaders have strong opinions about what it takes to grow a company. The top three descriptors about their decision-making style were “fast,” “intuition-driven” and “risk-tolerant.”

“I allow data to confirm what my gut is telling me. If data is in conflict with my gut, I use a priority system to determine what is truly needed for the decision at hand,” says one survey respondent. “Focus first on the facts and then factor in the emotional human component when necessary. The data doesn’t lie,” adds another one.

And when it comes to decision-making, they have a “buck stops here” mindset. Just like last year, 57 percent of business leaders told us that growth is more dependent on their decision-making than on external factors.

However, the survey also found a difference in attitudes among leaders of high-growth companies (10 percent or more) and other leaders. More high-growth company leaders see their decision-making as a more important factor in growth than external factors like the economy, geopolitics and regulations when compared to leaders from other companies. (See chart.)

Despite pressures and uncertainty on several fronts, today’s business leaders are resolved to make their way forward and have plans for growth in the coming year. That may mean calibrating expectations and leaning into their own data- and intuition-driven decisions—which the majority of leaders believe matter most—as they balance technological, financial and other situations they may encounter on the road to growth.

Read more about the factors that affect how business leaders make decisions.